Balkan Unscripted #13 - We are back with two big elephants in the room: Vučić and Dodik
Finally Back in Your Inbox: Vacation's over, the updates are here.
Hi everyone,
It’s been a summer of changes – and now we’re back, in a new way!
What’s new? First of all: Ingrid is no longer a freelancer. She has joined the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), an investigative journalism organisation that started in Sarajevo and now operates worldwide. From Amsterdam, she will coordinate investigations in the Netherlands and across Europe.
Luckily, Marjolein will continue her reporting from the Balkans. So don’t worry – we will still make sure that the very best Balkan stories find their way into your inbox. And of course Ingrid still has a special eye for the Balkans as well.
From now on, we’ll bring you a monthly newsletter – and we’ll experiment a bit with the format. Some editions will offer a deep dive or dispatch on a particular topic, others will provide a short update, and sometimes we’ll share a recommendation for something worth reading or watching. This edition we will focus on the two most obvious elephants in the rooms: Vučić and Dodik.
Thanks for staying with us, and stay tuned.
Ingrid & Marjolein
Serbia: Ongoing protests, police violence and intimidation of journalists
While summer traditionally brings a lull to protest movements, August in Serbia was anything but quiet.
Students increasingly reported instances of police violence, noting that it was directed even towards those who exhibited no aggressive or violent behavior. Furthermore, there appeared to be a rise in the number of arrested students. Journalists covering the unrest also described experiencing police brutality while on duty, even when clearly identifiable by their press vests.
For RTL Nieuws, Marjolein interviewed Aleksandra, one of the protesters who personally experienced and spoke out about the violence during the demonstrations.
But the pressure on journalists isn’t just physical: Investigative reporting by the OCCRP exposed a highly concerning conversation between the CEO of state-owned Telekom Srbija and the newly appointed CEO of United Group, the owner of Serbia’s last major independent broadcasters. The leaked audio allegedly revealed discussions centered on plans to politically neutralize or compromise the editorial independence of critical outlets like N1 and Nova S, including the potential removal of a media executive. This revelation signals intense political pressure from the ruling regime to silence critical journalism and has drawn sharp criticism from international media watchdogs. Although United Group’s current management has since publicly denied the allegations, they have been urged to staunchly defend the independence of their news channels against all forms of political interference.
Protesters in the Netherlands rallied at United Group’s Hoofddorp headquarters, warning of an attack on press freedom. If N1 disappears, observers say, only government-controlled media will remain. Critics accuse the EU of turning a blind eye while Vučić tightens control.
We are now approaching a full year of continuous protests in Serbia. Initially, many observers were skeptical, dismissing these demonstrations as just another fleeting wave that would quickly dissipate. However, the sustained commitment of the participants has made it increasingly clear that they are resolute and will not give up until their core demands are addressed. We fully anticipate that the protests will continue, and we expect a particularly significant mobilization around November 1st, which marks the one-year anniversary of the tragic collapse of the canopy at the Novi Sad train station. This date is widely expected to be a major event.
Bosnia: will Dodik stay in power, yes or no?
At the moment of writing this newsletter, we feel nobody really knows what is going on with Dodik. Let’s unpack a bit what happened in the last couple of weeks.
Dodik’s downfall was triggered by his persistent refusal to recognize the authority of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, currently German politician Christian Schmidt.
The Verdict: Dodik’s repeated defiance led to a conviction last februari by the highest court in Sarajevo, which sentenced him to a year in prison and banned him from holding political office for six years.
Removal from Office: After losing his appeal, Dodik was formally removed from his post in August, and the Bosnian electoral commission called for snap presidential elections in Republika Srpska.
Failed Resistance: Initially, Dodik rejected his removal, branding the process a political conspiracy involving the international community, Bosniaks, and the courts. He called for a boycott of the new election and announced a referendum: The referendum would basically be whether or not people accept that Dodiks mandate has been revoked.
Dodik’s stubborn resistance crumbled when he realized he had exhausted all political and international options.
Financial Concession: He implicitly recognized the judicial ruling by paying a fine to avoid his prison sentence.
Political Isolation: Crucially, his appeal for widespread support failed. The public did not rise in protest, and the local opposition refused to join his cause.
International Silence: His frequent visits to Moscow yielded no guarantees from Vladimir Putin that Russia would intervene. Furthermore, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, facing domestic protests, maintained his stated position in favor of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity, offering no lifeline to Dodik.
The Quiet Capitulation
The final sign of his defeat came when Dodik not only abandoned the idea of an election boycott but also nominated a candidate from his SNSD party to run in the snap elections. By nominating a successor, he effectively acknowledged that his presidency was over and his years-long dominance of RS and Bosnian politics was ending.
BUT
Still the referendum hasn’t officially been cancelled. There are now rumors it might be postponed to the 9th of January, the illegal national day of RS. And even if Dodik would officially give up, he for sure will continue influencing political life in RS behind the scenes. So keep an eye on Bosnia.
Meme of the week
Please value the peace between Albania and Azerbaijan!
Hi, from us
We’re Ingrid & Marjolein, two journalists writing about the Balkan and beyond. One Saturday night — after a few glasses of rakija, yes — this newsletter was born. In each edition, we share stories that catch our eye, the ones that are worth reading, along with our observations from reporting in the region. So grab a coffee (or a rakija) and join us.
